Current Record: 13-13 (9th in Western Conference)
Scoring Leader: Ja Morant (18.9 ppg)
Other Key Players: Jonas Valanciunas (16.2 ppg, 11.0 reb)
Key Injuries: Dillion Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Killian Tillie (all out)
Recent Notable Games: [19 Feb] 14-pt win over Pistons; [20 Feb] 31-pt loss to Suns
Team Ratings: Off Rtg 110.9 (19th), Def Rtg 112.2 (18th), Net Rtg -1.3 (20th)
Interesting Team Stats: 1st in Assists, 1st in Steals, 28th in Free Throw rate, 26th in 3pt attempt rate, 27th in opponent eFG%
Shot Chart
The Narrative
The Grizzlies were out-dueled by Damian Lillard and the Blazers in the very first play-in tournament last season. But there have been much positivity about this young Grizzlies squad with two players awarded the rookie first team. After starting the season 9-6, they went 4-7 the next 11 games as injuries take their toll on this team. This continues tonight as they will face the Mavs without two of their starters in Jaren Jackson Jr and Dillion Brooks.
The Mavericks have been the beneficiary of a winter storm hitting the Texas area, and ending up having 3 games postponed due to poor weather conditions. The time off is much needed for the players hit with COVID to recover their health and conditioning, and for the team to practice together and particularly work on team defense. Fans are looking forward to this game after a week long break without basketball, and to see if the team improves on their 27th rank defensive rating (#30 in the last 15 games).
Mavericks Match-up Analysis
#1 – Ja-Jonas Pick and Roll
The Grizzlies go-to play is the spread pick-and-roll (PnR) with Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas. Morant is quick to get past his defender (4th in the league in drives per game), and deny him position by putting him against Morant’s back. The big man usually stays with Valanciunas down low, leaving Morant open for a floater in the paint (5th in points scored from drives, 5th in points scored as PnR ball handler). Morant is quick and will attack the rim if he sees an opening, but he doesn’t draw contact as much as some other heliocentric ball handlers do (only 5.4 FTA per game). If the big man leaves Jonas to guard Ja, Morant has shown improved passing ability this season (7th in assist %), and will find the open man (Valanciunas averages 1.24 ppp as the roll man, 9th among players who average above 2 rolls per game). Ja is shooting terribly this season (22.0% from 3pt) and the best defense might be to go under the pick, deny the drive and bait him to shoot the long ball.
If the play is broken up, a Jonas post-up is a common secondary play (8th in number of post-ups), averaging 0.99 ppp (4th among players averaging above 4 post-ups per game). Jonas is unafraid to post up against opposing centers, and I suspect he will take it to KP for a few possessions. Jonas is also quick to clean up missed shots on the offensive glass (9th in Off Reb %) and both Jonas (among players) and the Grizz (among teams) rank 1st in second chance points.
All eyes will be on KP to see if the extra few days of rest and practice would help him improve on his PnR defense and general rim protection, a highlighted cause of concern over the last few weeks. Being able to box out Jonas and rebound the ball better would also be a big bonus on top of that.
#2 – Transition Buckets
The Grizzlies currently rank 1st in steals, and 2nd in opponent turnover percentage. They have 11(!!!) players averaging 0.9 steals per game or better, including Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones, who are top 20 in the league in steals per game. Brooks is out for this game, but Justice Winslow has recently returned from injury and he too is a good perimeter defender.
The Grizz parlay those all those steals into 18.8 transition opportunities per game (ranking 9th) and rank 4th on fastbreak points and 1st on points off turnovers. The Mavs are a low turnover team (3rd lowest in turnover %) because of how much Luka handles the ball, but the bench needs to avoid sloppy passing when Luka sits, especially given how the Mavs are not great at transition defense (27th).
#3 – Rising Stars
The Grizz have arguably the best young core of players who are still on their rookie contracts including rookies Desmond Bane (10th in league in 3pt%) and Xavier Tillman Sr, sophomores Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke, and third year players Jaren Jackson Jr, De’Anthony Melton and Grayson Allen. The Mavs might very possibly face the Grizz as a play-in opponent this off-season, and they may develop to be one of the great Mavs’ division rivals over the next couple of years, as Luka and Morant continue to lead each team deep into the western conference playoffs. But as for this season, similar to the Mavs, the Grizz have struggled significantly with injuries and COVID (but were fortunate enough to have games postponed), and are hoping to step up their play as the season progresses and their players get healthier.
Conclusion
The Grizz are the team positioned just above the Mavs on the conference ladder, and they really need to win this game if they hope to climb back into a top 6 ranking in the west (to secure a playoff spot). Given their time off and the Grizzlies’ injuries, it would be very very disappointing if the Mavs cannot pull out a W tonight.
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